With the announcement yesterday of BlizzCon 2014 I decided to have a think and see what that means for the likely dates for the release of Warlords of Draenor.
BlizzCon is on November 7th-8th and that for me means that the expansion WILL be before this time. Then I had to make the following assumptions:
- it takes 3 weeks of work in the BlizzCon offices in preparation for BlizzCon;
- as we have no beta yet the launch can't come earlier than August;
- Blizzard are creatures of habit;
This led me to the assumption that the expansion will come in August, September or October.
Next I looked through the history of WoW to see what has happened previously in those months and discovered that Blizzard has a heavy bias towards releasing content in a 5 week window that is the last week in August and all of September.
There is of course a very good reason this time of year is chosen. Many players of the game are young 20 somethings, who like to go and party in the summer months, a good number are college/university students who go home for the summer and return to their studies in late August early September. On top of that you need to consider the Blizzard workforce also would like to holiday in the summer and when you consider that it makes perfect sense.
Looking back through time you see a lot of major events happen:
- September 2 2001 - World of Warcraft announced.
- September 13 2005 - Patch 1.7.0
- August 22 2006 - Patch 1.12.0
- September 11 2006 - Burning Crusade announced to be released on January 16, 2007
- September 27 2007- Patch 2.2.0
- August 21 2008 - Wrath of the Lich King cinematic released
- September 15 2008 - Wrath of the Lich King release date announced to be November 13, 2008
- September 2 2009 - Faction Change service offered
- September 19 2009 - World of Warcraft relaunches in China under its new licensee, NetEase
- September 22 2009 - Patch 3.2.2
- September 7 2010 - Cataclysm pre-events Operation: Gnomeregan / Zalazane's Fall
- September 25 2012- Mists of Panderia released
- September 10 2013 - Patch 5.4
- September 25 2013 - The first Connected Realms are implemented
We also know that Blizzard release everything on a Tuesday. This now gives us five potential dates:
- August 26 2014;
- September 2 2014;
- September 9 2014;
- September 16 2014;
- September 23 2014;
Historically, the prepatch comes 4 weeks before the main event so this "evidence" only leaves one possibility, September 23 2014 with the pre-patch (6.0.x) hitting us on August 26 2014.
So much for Blizzard "not leaving us hanging" like they did in Wrath or Cataclysm, but there is the possibility (or should that be hope) that I am miles off target. I know I certainly don't want to wait that long, as my guild is already struggling with the attendance boss in raids.
Do you think my prediction is miles off target? Too optimistic? Too pessimisitic? Do you have crazy theories for the release date? If so, please leave a comment. more »